Static Page Nav Bar

Friday, March 15, 2013

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs. Diaz - Preview and Predictions

Date: March 16, 2013
Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Venue: Bell Centre


MAIN CARD (on PPV @ 10 p.m. ET)

(c) Georges St-Pierre (23-2) vs. Nick Diaz (26-8) for UFC Welterweight title - The fight that has taken years to make, that we have been promised and seen promoted before, is finally happening this weekend.  GSP looked pretty good versus Carlos Condit in his first fight back from over year off due to knee surgery, although he was placed in some trouble at several points during the bout.  I think despite the promoting of his pulling from "a dark place", GSP just goes back to the same place he has always gone to, establish and keep distance with the jab to setup a double leg for ground and pound, maybe incorporate some leg kicks like Ben Henderson did against Diaz's brother Nate.  Not very glamorous, but effective enough to get the win and frustrate Diaz for five rounds.  Diaz will be coming off a year suspension due failing his post fight drug test vs Carlos Condit for having marijuana metabolites in his system.  He'll obviously look to use his boxing on GSP, which many might call superior, however I think if the fight does stay standing we could have an interesting affair on our hands between GSP's jab work and Diaz's punches in bunches volume based style.  However, I can't help but be a shill for the 209 on this one and hope to god GSP would just double leg right into a Diaz submission.

Stephen's Pick: Nick Diaz via Submission, Rd. 3 (and now your new UFC WW champion motherfuckers!)

Carlos Condit (28-6) vs. Johny Hendricks (14-1) - As much as I'd love to see Carlos rematch Rory MacDonald, this fight just seems to make more sense or really be more relevant.  Since MacDonald has stated his intention to not fight champion/training partner GSP, why give him top contenders to fight when you can have them throw down?  Condit was the last challenger for the belt while Hendricks has been waiting in the wings for his shot for some time.  This could really be a sleeper for a fight of the night, however I think one of two things happens...either somebody is going to get wrecked (talking violent KO here), or somebody's game is exposed enough for them to lose a lopsided decision.  Despite Hendrick's momentum I think Condit is the more technical fighter and the greater avenues to victory, however an H-Bomb to Condit's chin (very granite like to begin with) might be too much for the Natural Born Killer to handle.

Stephen's Pick: Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision

Jake Ellenberger (28-6) vs. Nate Marquardt (32-11-2) - While this is still a great fight, I'm a little bummed Ellenberger isn't fighting Hendricks anymore as that was a great potential matchup (and still could be).  I think Marquardt can give Ellenberger lots of problems if Jake can't finish him, however I also worry about Nate's cut to 170 and it's effects on his body as was seen in his last fight in Strikeforce (although that was a championship fight).  I think we see Ellenberger looking to make a statement here in emphatic fashion to position himself for a rematch with Carlos Condit or eventual matchup with Hendricks in the fall.

Stephen's Pick: Jake Ellenberger via TKO, Rd. 1 

Chris Camozzi (18-5) vs. Nick Ring (13-1) - This middleweight bout includes several alumni from a couple TUF seasons past, both fighters are 3-1 in their last 4 scraps in the Octagon and will likely be looking to parley their momentum into a shot at someone in the top 10.  It will likely either be a slow paced boring fight like Fletcher/Ricci has the potential to be or a spirited scrap a few pints short of a slobberknocker, regardless I see Ring's hand being raised.  

Stephen's Pick:  Nick Ring via Unanimous Decision

Colin Fletcher (8-2) vs. Mike Ricci (7-3) - A lightweight battle of TUF runner ups, Fletcher from The Smashes UK vs AUS and Ricci from season 16, will kick off the main card and may sound exciting on paper but more than likely will disappoint.  I see both men fighting cautiously in an effort to secure a roster spot in a stacked division, however I'll give Fletcher the nod for having a better submission game which I hope he utilizes to choke out the chic Canadian hipster. 

Stephen's Pick:  Colin Fletcher via Submission, Rd. 2


PRELIMINARY CARD (on FX @ 8 p.m. ET)

Patrick Cote (18-8) vs. Bobby Voelker (24-8) - Cote is naturally a larger fighter and Voelker is coming off a layoff of over a year at stepped up competition.

Stephen's Pick:  Patrick Cote via TKO, Rd. 2

Antonio Carvalho (15-5) vs. Darren Elkins (15-2) - Can't say I've been overly impressed by Carvalho, Elkins has looked great since dropping to Featherweight.

Stephen's Pick:  Darren Elkins via Unanimous Decision

Jordan Mein (26-8) vs. Dan Miller (14-6) - I give Mein a lot of credit for having as much experience as he does and still being as young, he definitely brings it.  However I think Miller will be too much for him at welterweight in a potential Fight of the Night candidate right here.

Stephen's Pick:  Dan Miller via Submission, Rd. 3

Daron Cruickshank (12-2) vs. John Makdessi (10-2) - Given their flashy striking styles you could be looking at another potential barnburner right here, however I get the feeling they might ultimately nullify each other. 

Stephen's Pick: Daron Cruickshank via Unanimous Decision


PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6:35 p.m. ET)

Quinn Mulhern (18-2) vs. Rick Story (14-6) - Remember when Rick Story was a contender and on a 6 fight win streak?  Oh that was almost 2 yrs ago, well hopefully he can get back to form once more.

Stephen's Pick: Rick Story via Unanimous Decision

TJ Dillashaw (6-1) vs. Issei Tamura (7-3) - Might as well be a showcase fight for Dillashaw, I get the notion that Tamura is going to be wrestle-fucked to a decision right here.

Stephen's Pick: TJ Dillashaw via Unanimous Decision

Reuben Duran (8-4-1) vs. George Roop (12-9-1) - Roop has had some exciting fights, but more often than not lately has folded under pressure.  I can't say I recall much of Duran either so this is pretty much a toss up in my book.

Stephen's Pick: Reuben Duran via Submission, Rd. 2

No comments:

Post a Comment